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Ecuador seen waiting on bond despite recent rally

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Ecuador seen waiting on bond despite recent rally

Judging by past behavior, Ecuador has typically tapped the bond market when reserves fell below US$3bn. That happened on the week of July 20 when they hit US$2.844bn – their lowest level since January 19, according to a Torino Capital report.

Reuters, August 2, 2018 – London

Venezuela Vote Marred by Violence, Including Candidate’s Death

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Venezuela Vote Marred by Violence, Including Candidate’s Death

“Election officials said on Sunday night that eight million people cast ballots, which would represent more than 40 percent of eligible voters. But lines observed by reporters throughout the country on Sunday cast doubt on the figure. An independent estimate by the investment bank Torino Capital, based on a poll of voting centers, estimated that between 3.1 million and four million voters cast ballots.”

New York Times, July 30, 2018 – EEUU

Venezuela to lop five zeros off its currency

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Venezuela to lop five zeros off its currency

“The Venezuelan government retains the capacity to print petros. This makes anchoring the bolivar to the petro not that different from anchoring the bolivar to itself.”Francisco Rodriguez, Torino Capital’s Chief Economist .

Financial Times, July 26, 2018 – EEUU

Venezuela’s Maduro, Clinging to Power, Uses Hunger as an Election Weapon

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Venezuela’s Maduro, Clinging to Power, Uses Hunger as an Election Weapon

“State benefits have been important to turning out voters, according to a study of 142 voting centers during the December municipal elections by Torino Capital, a New York-based investment bank which closely follows Venezuela. The study showed Mr. Maduro’s party received over 700,000 more votes in that election than in the 2015 congressional election, which the opposition won handily when the economy was more stable. The opposition’s support fell by almost 5 million votes.”

The Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2018 – EEUU

Venezuela Opposition to Boycott Vote

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Venezuela Opposition to Boycott Vote

Mr. Maduro is seeking to take advantage of the electorate’s reluctance to participate in a system widely perceived as rigged, according to Francisco Rodríguez, who tracks Venezuela at the New York investment firm Torino Capital. (…) “There are multiple examples in which authoritarian governments lose power after trying to rig an election,” said Mr. Rodríguez, citing Chile in 1988 and Nicaragua in 1990.

The Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2018 – EEUU

Venezuela drops overvalued exchange rate for state imports

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Venezuela drops overvalued exchange rate for state imports

Venezuela is abandoning the most-overvalued of its two official foreign exchange rates, which had been used for state imports of food and medicine amid a worsening economic crisis.The move could potentially encourage businesses to import more and put more goods on store shelves and in pharmacies, but only if the government carries it out as written, said Francisco Rodriguez, a former Venezuelan official who is now chief economist at the New York-based Torino Capital.“This is not a place where there’s a good tradition of following the letter of the law,” Rodriguez said Tuesday. “I don’t think that one should get too optimistic.”

AP News, January 30, 2018 – EEUU